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Research by the National Housing Federation shows that when housing benefit allowances are brought into line with the bottom third of private sector rents instead of the bottom half as few as 46,000 of the 160,000 the capital’s private sector homes currently occupied by benefit claimants would sit within the new band.
That would mean the rent charged on 114,000 homes occupied by claimants would suddenly be too pricy for the occupying claimants, leaving them at risk of losing their homes.
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While some landlords may reduce rents in line with the new upper limit, there is a fear that the housing market in London is so strong that most would simply decide to keep their charges at the same level and let out their homes to non-claimants.
This would mean that many of the 114,000 households in the homes that would become too expensive would either have to crowd into the drastically reduced pool of affordable homes or leave the capital entirely.
The issue of families being 'squeezed' out of their existing properties is set to hit families across the capital, not only in expensive boroughs, such as Kensington and Chelsea, and Westminster, but also in areas such as Islington, Southwark and Lambeth.
The new research, based on official government figures, adds weight to growing concerns that the changes being proposed by the Government could force huge numbers of poor and vulnerable people to leave the capital, and move away from areas of employment opportunities, while pushing others into overcrowded conditions.
Official government statistics already show that the introduction of housing benefit caps will hit a range of vulnerable groups, such as low paid workers, single parents, people with disabilities and black and Asian households.
The proposed reduction of housing benefit allowances – called local housing allowances – is due to come into effect from October 2011.
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