In its new report, 'Capital funding for Schools', the NAO estimates even with current levels of funding costs will spiral due to many buildings nearing the end of their operational lives.
With 60% of the schools estate built before 1976, the Department for Education estimates it would cost £6.7 billion to return all school buildings to satisfactory or better condition, and a further £7.1bn to bring parts of school buildings from satisfactory to good condition. The most common major defects are problems with electrics and external walls.
The NAO said the expected deterioration is a "significant risk" to long-term value for money, with responsible for maintaining school buildings' conditions falling to schools, multi-academy trusts and local authorities.
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However, the Department and local authorities created 599,000 new school places at a cost of £7.5bn between 2010/2015, mostly in good or outstanding schools, enabling them to meet the growing demand for places.
While a large number of new places have been created, and progress is still being made to improve schools in the worse conditions, the NAO said "significant challenges" still remain.
The Department plans to open 500 new free schools between May 2015 and September 2020, however the biggest risk to delivering the schools is the availability of suitable sites. This has resulted in the Department entering into "complex commercial agreements" and paying large sums to secure suitable sites.
The NAO found while the average cost of the 175 sites bought by the Department is £4.9 million, 24 sites have cost more than £10m including four that have cost more than £30m.
To solve this, the Department is in the process of setting out a property company.
Sir Amyas Morse, head of the NAO, said having enough school places in the right places is a "crucial part of the education system".
"The Department has responded positively to start to meet the challenges it faces in relation to the quality and capacity of the school estate," he said.
"Significant challenges remain, however, as the population continues to grow and the condition of the ageing estate deteriorates. To deliver value for money, the Department must make the best use of the capital funding it has available - by continuing to increase the use of data to inform its funding decisions and by creating places where it can demonstrate that they will have the greatest impact."
(LM/MH)
